soal politik Amrik

[kepikbiru]

Originally Posted by JC4Life

Yah, Indonesia as a country lah, pik. Kota-kota besarnya lah, terutama Jakarta.

Property di Indonesia harganya juga ga record high, siapa yang bilang? Malah ada kecenderungan over-supply, walaupun ditutup-tutupi para "analis" (anal!) dan "pengamat property" (pesan sponsor dari developer tentunya).

Kredit rumah (KPR) di Indonesia juah lebih konservatif daripada di Amrik, bank-bank di sini cari aman banget, lesson learned from 1997.

Yang terjadi, mungkin yang terjadi di Amrik sekarang, seperti yang terjadi di Indonesia 1995-1997. Hmm, interesting, the inability to learn.

oversupply is the start of sliding price which is the start of deflation.
Property di Amerika cuman oversupply tahun 2004. Di England cuman oversupply tahun 2007. Gitu juga di Spanyol, Canada dst. Oversupply doang.
Now Jakarta punya enough heft to absorb all the property (20 juta orang bo!), n juga orang biasa bayar property yang harganya jauh lebih mahal dari income and rent. Tapi apa Jakarta punya enough income?

Perbandingan, rata2 orang Amrik-Eropa dst, bagi mereka harga property yg pas dan financially prudent untuk ditinggalin itu sekitar 2-3 kali gaji 1 tahun. Artinya buat org yg gajinya $50,000, pantasnya tinggal di rumah yg harganya $150,000. Waktu multipliernya udah sampe 5,6 malah sampe 10 ketahuan jelas, there is something wrong n akhirnya the bubble burst and everybody went bankrupt. That's the trigger for price deflation.

How soon? how long? how bad? (Indonesia, terutama).

I simply don't know. Di India dan di Jepang udah ada bank run (people taking money from bank and holding cash). Once ini terjadi, kalo confidence is really low, we'll see credit crisis pretty soon there. I don't know enough about Indonesian liquidity and banking to be honest.

Hmm. I believe agriculture will prevail.

Agriculture di Indonesia bakalan cukup untuk mencukupi kebutuhan orang indonesia. Rugi export kalo harga komoditas jeblok. Masalahnya kan price deflation.

Such country exist nowadays?

Surprisingly yes. Cuba comes to mind. Asian countries that weather the storm well in 1997 crisis would probably do well too (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand) comes to mind. Maybe the Scandinavian countries.

Mudah-mudahan Indonesia ga jadi two-time loser. Saya optimis kagak. Asal Boediono dan Sri Mulyani jangan diturunkan dari pos-posnya.

I don't even know who they are. That shows you how clueless I am about Indonesia.

[JC4Life]

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

oversupply is the start of sliding price which is the start of deflation.
Property di Amerika cuman oversupply tahun 2004. Di England cuman oversupply tahun 2007. Gitu juga di Spanyol, Canada dst. Oversupply doang.

Over-supply nya Indonesia, to some extent, ga ngerti apakah sorta like money laundering. Not quite sure.

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

Now Jakarta punya enough heft to absorb all the property (20 juta orang bo!), n juga orang biasa bayar property yang harganya jauh lebih mahal dari income and rent. Tapi apa Jakarta punya enough income?

Nope. You can't just simply use 20 mio people as the yardstick of buying power, as property is not the same as FMCG. Dan yang punya income lebih dari cukup untuk beli (baca: invest) in property, apakah masih mau beli property di Jakarta. I dunno.

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

Perbandingan, rata2 orang Amrik-Eropa dst, bagi mereka harga property yg pas dan financially prudent untuk ditinggalin itu sekitar 2-3 kali gaji 1 tahun. Artinya buat org yg gajinya $50,000, pantasnya tinggal di rumah yg harganya $150,000. Waktu multipliernya udah sampe 5,6 malah sampe 10 ketahuan jelas, there is something wrong n akhirnya the bubble burst and everybody went bankrupt. That's the trigger for price deflation.

Typical home loan/ mortgage programs in Indonesia are more stringent that you thought. But then, cheap interest rate (for home loans) means practically nothing when the income level is not there to purchase a house.

About the property bubble in the U.S., maybe all the way back then when Feds lowered the rates (Greenspan, that was), he already knew that the US economy will go downward anyway.

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

I simply don't know. Di India dan di Jepang udah ada bank run (people taking money from bank and holding cash). Once ini terjadi, kalo confidence is really low, we'll see credit crisis pretty soon there. I don't know enough about Indonesian liquidity and banking to be honest.

Indonesian banking was ****ty back in Soeharto era, pre-1997 crisis, as bad (if not worse than) as Thailand and South Korea. I'm sure Indonesian central bank learned a LOT since.

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

Agriculture di Indonesia bakalan cukup untuk mencukupi kebutuhan orang indonesia. Rugi export kalo harga komoditas jeblok. Masalahnya kan price deflation.

Not entirely. I was trying to bring the issue of food scarcity (food crises). Food export (rice, for example) 'ga pernah rugi', you know. This, I know for sure, at least for Indonesia.

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

Surprisingly yes. Cuba comes to mind. Asian countries that weather the storm well in 1997 crisis would probably do well too (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand) comes to mind. Maybe the Scandinavian countries.

Cuba? Might as well put Libya to the list.
Singapore was too dependent to the US than you know.

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

I don't even know who they are. That shows you how clueless I am about Indonesia.

How long have you been in the US, anyway? Not born there, I suppose? Hmm...
Boediono is a senior economist now heading the central bank as well as the minister of economy (kalo ga salah).
Sri Mulyani was US-trained economist, the minister of finance.

[kepikbiru]

Originally Posted by JC4Life

Over-supply nya Indonesia, to some extent, ga ngerti apakah sorta like money laundering. Not quite sure.

Nope. You can't just simply use 20 mio people as the yardstick of buying power, as property is not the same as FMCG. Dan yang punya income lebih dari cukup untuk beli (baca: invest) in property, apakah masih mau beli property di Jakarta. I dunno.

Typical home loan/ mortgage programs in Indonesia are more stringent that you thought. But then, cheap interest rate (for home loans) means practically nothing when the income level is not there to purchase a house.

Makanya kan gua bilang, apa income levelnya mendukung? That's what happened in the US. Ada 300 million people, tapi income levelnya ngga mendukung, akhirnya pop goes the bubble.

About the property bubble in the U.S., maybe all the way back then when Feds lowered the rates (Greenspan, that was), he already knew that the US economy will go downward anyway.

That's the start of the bubble. Bubble pops 2 years ago.

Not entirely. I was trying to bring the issue of food scarcity (food crises). Food export (rice, for example) 'ga pernah rugi', you know. This, I know for sure, at least for Indonesia.

Export makanan rugi kalo global commodity price falls. Kita sempet kena huge price inflation in July, tapi setelah itu semua going down down down.

Cuba? Might as well put Libya to the list.
Singapore was too dependent to the US than you know.

hey Cuba is detached from US thanks to trade sanctions.
Singapore will be hit hard because it is a financial island, but....
Indonesia punya 220 million people n $60 billion war chest
Singapore punya 4.5 million people n $170 billion war chest

Whatever it is, It is on. Kapan Indonesia kena, how about now?
1. BII didiskon. Well how about other comparable banks? maybe they're deflating in value as well.
2. JSX is trending lower, signalling deflation.
3. Investors are leaving Indonesia.

Masalahnya indonesia in this short term (high inflation) is the same as masalahnya US just 3 months ago waktu commodity boomed. Now the problem is deflation, and pretty soon Indonesia juga bakalan kena. btw harga rumah di Singapore dah turun.. hmmm... gimana dengan tauke2 yg punya rumah disana ya?
Pretty soon credit rumah bakalan super sulit n harga rumah Indo bakalan turun
yikess!!

[kepikbiru]

Wapres tercinta bilang "relax the fundamental of our economy is strong!"
kompas.com/read/xml/2008/10/01/13581136/wapres.minta.gubernur.bi.tenang.hadapi.krisis.
Ini dead ringer sama omongan John McCain

Permintaan itu disampaikan Wapres Kalla saat menjawab pers usai open house di Jakarta. "Saya meminta tenang-tenang sajalah. Fundamental domestik ekonomi kita cukup baik. Terkecuali pergerakan pasar saham yang turun naik," tandas Wapres.

Menurut Wapres, dampak yang bisa terjadi akibat krisis global adalah turunnya ekspor. Namun bagi Indonesia, dampak itu tidak terlalu besar, sebab ekspor Indonesia ke AS merupakan komoditas utama, seperti energi.

"Akibat krisis global, memang turun daya beli masyarakat di Amerika dan Eropa terhadap komoditi. Itu yang menyebabkan ekspor bisa menurun. Tapi karena ekspor kita adalah komoditi utama, itu tidak terlalu berpengaruh. Hari ini ekspor komoditas kita mulai naik lagi," ujar Kalla.

Well let's recap what we know. Dalam keadaan recession -> deep recession -> depression yang terjadi adalah price deflation, artinya harga turun. We saw harga asset (rumah, tanah, saham) deflate like crazy, oil udah turun, commodity, down.

Pertanyaan yg simple Bpk Wakil Presiden, apa yang terjadi kalau Indonesia mengekspor barang yang harganya turun dan demandnya turun?

Maksudnya WWW 3?
Soon enough, United States mesti ngaku bahwa "We're not as superpower as we thought we (once) were".

I missed this, maksud gua setelah Great Depression itu ada World War II gara2 rise of nationalism and anti Americanism.
Kalo Amerika masuk Great Depression, which powers of the world are going to rise?
Kalo oil sampe $70 apalagi $50, Russia, n Middle East will be in deep deep trouble. Euro may come up stronger if only because they're socialized enough. China may suffer because global demand of their product will go dodo. Rise of nationalism will mean that Indonesia will buy Indonesian stuff, Japan will buy Japanese stuff, American will buy Mexican stuff. However they have a lot of cash reserve and willing to buy equities all over the world. Jangan kaget kalo ada bank di Indonesia yg dibeli China.

[PlainBread]

Originally Posted by PlainBread

Video2 Palin waktu dia debat di Alaska udah banyak kesebar, gayanya meyakinkan kok, isi omongannya juga gak jelek2 amat, dan suaranya gak ada accent, gak cempreng or shrilly. Biasanya dalam debat masing2 tim nurunin tingkat ekspektasi dari jagoannya, biar ntar di debat kalo pun ternyata average bisa dibilang "beyond expectation." Kalo selama ini Palin dianggap minus dari banyak hal, tapi pas di debate nanti ternyata dia bisa gain 3-4 out of 10 aja, sementara Biden bisa score 7 outta 10, McCain campaign bisa bilang kalo Palin menang dan mayoritas rakyat bakal menganguk setuju (Palin beyond expectation -yang tadinya minus bisa dapet point, sementara Biden yang experience ternyata yang diharapin bisa bikin score 8-10 ternyata cuma dapet 7).

Usually people are glad when they were right, but not me hahahaha. Palin passed the bar she has set very low for herself. Good for her. Btw, she sounds like Cheney, more authority for a vice president. Anyone?

[vion]

Originally Posted by PlainBread

Usually people are glad when they were right, but not me hahahaha. Palin passed the bar she has set very low for herself. Good for her. Btw, she sounds like Cheney, more authority for a vice president. Anyone?

not really. read this:

Originally Posted by CNN

Only 26 percent of those surveyed said that Palin was more intelligent in the debate compared to the 57 percent who chose Biden, according to the poll of 611 adult Americans, who tuned in to watch it. The poll had a sampling error of 4 points.

Overall, 51 percent of the debate watchers said that Biden did the best job in the debate, while 36 percent gave the nod to Palin.

Originally Posted by CNN

However, the Alaska governor, who repeatedly sought to emphasize the maverick credentials of the McCain-Palin ticket, overcame expectations as 84 percent of the debate watchers said she did better than expected.

yah gimana ga bakal tampil lebih baik, kalau standar SD diserahkan pada anak SMA. kalau masih ga bisa juga yah keterlaluan.

[PlainBread]

Originally Posted by vion

not really. read this:

Betul, kalo dicompared ke Biden. Makanya McCan campaign (or Palin herself) smart enough untuk gak pake standard itu, so dimeasurenya against herself. Old tactic kok kalo soal debat beginian, jadi standardnya dibikin low banget, biar ntar pas debate bisa passed her own bar which was very low. It always works if one really can't win against the opponent.

Btw, semalem langsung email ke salah seorang temen gue yang keluarganya republican abis:

All your points well taken I think Biden was charmed by her as were most men... I told my Dad not to get lost in the wink. She has sex appeal and men fall all over themselves. Biden was much more direct and seemed to know the issues when she didnt have an answer she dropped the g's off her words winked smiled and went in a circle.

Women think she is so cool but who brings their baby to a debate and did you notice the little daughter knew how to take care of the baby wonder who takes care of him..... The issues go in a circle Biden most informed wish he hadnt got caught up in the charm Joe dont say its so we are gonna kill all the polar bears and hunt them with helicopters cuz who needs polar bears......

Dont think she has a clue but watch the people go for her charm.. Are Americans so stupid more Tuesday My blood pressure is uppppp. See ya Tuesday *****




Date: Thu, 2 Oct 2008 20:10:35 -0700
From: *******@yahoo.com
Subject: Palin = Cheney
To: ******@msn.com

Hi *****,

As you asked me to, hahaha, I watched the debate and emailed you right away of what I think about it.

First, I knew that Palin would come stronger in this debate than the interviews she had with ABC news. At least she didn't fail setting the bar very low for herself lately as now she passed her own bar. If she wants to win the ill-informed voters, she just did it smoothly.

About attacking opponent's gaffe, Biden did it first beautifully. He brought up "ultimate bridge to nowhere." Bet 10 $ this would be used for an ad by their campaign. Since then, Palin didn't say anything about the bridge at all during the debate. Good job, Robin, I mean, Biden!

OK, I changed my mind, I'm not gonna write it in details. But here's some interesting points:

1. Too bad Biden didn't bring up McCain votes against veterans bills. Obama didn't either last week. How can a veteran be against other veterans?

2. Palin didn't answer questions! She kept claiming as a washington outsider, but as I listened her answers, running around and being worse than a door-to-door salesman campaigning the ticket, not different than any cheap politicians:

- When being asked what caused global warning and the solution, she's dumbly thinking that we don't have to find out what caused it. Biden was right that we're not gonna solve it unless we know what caused it.

- When being asked what issue she has changed, she's just promoted herself ("didn't veto enough as major or governor bla bla"?) and Biden was honest telling the audience on what issue he has changed. Wow, is she running for president?

- Deregulation. Totally ignorant.

- Tax issue. Say tax breaks tax breaks, but for who she didn't even dare to mention it. Seems like she didn't understand what reaganomic is. Or maybe I'm the one who's dumb.

- Darfur. Lucky her Biden answered it first so she can copy-paste his answer. I doubt it that she knew what happened there, even can't locate where Darfur is on the map.

- Energy policy. She didn't mention nuclear plants that has been McCain's base issue on energy. And more incredible, she mentioned energy indepedence! Gosh, she has been fighting that Polar Bear shouldn't be put in national endangered specieses list like no one knows that has something to do with oil drilling in Alaska

- etc, too many issues debated in 2 hours. I'll bring up later what I forgot, or when I see you again on next Tuesday

3. Least but not last. She said she wants more authority for vice presidency. Did I hear it wrong? She's only a vice president candidate and she already has the tought?

ps: Did I hear she said nu-cu-ler? Good for her she speaks pretty fast none catches it.

[vion]

tadi sempat dengar analisis soal debat semalam. wuih, udah ada yang bilang theoretically, republican ga bakal menang tahun ini. ditambah lagi waktu baca ini: (komentar dari pendukungnya palin)

Originally Posted by CNN

"I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent," she wrote this week, "my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted."

and the following result is more painful to read than ever

Originally Posted by CNN

A pair of Washington post-ABC News polls found that last month, 60 percent of independents had a favorable impression of her. That's down to 48 percent. Her "unfavorable'"ratings rose from 26 percent to 36 percent. And McCain has followed her down a bit in the polls too.

Originally Posted by PB's Friend

All your points well taken I think Biden was charmed by her as were most men... I told my Dad not to get lost in the wink. She has sex appeal and men fall all over themselves. Biden was much more direct and seemed to know the issues when she didnt have an answer she dropped the g's off her words winked smiled and went in a circle.

Biden was charmed mulai dari awal. mulai dari waktu salaman itu aja dia dah kelamaan pegang lengan atasnya Palin. just one second too long, tapi kelihatan efeknya. i must admit though, Palin is smart, and she knows how to communicate with audience at home. but other than that, im not impressed.

p.s.: she is a subject of joke in moscow btw. that's the reason for her not to bring up russian issues anymore, imo.

[kepikbiru]

Originally Posted by vion

Biden was charmed mulai dari awal. mulai dari waktu salaman itu aja dia dah kelamaan pegang lengan atasnya Palin. just one second too long, tapi kelihatan efeknya. i must admit though, Palin is smart, and she knows how to communicate with audience at home. but other than that, im not impressed.

Is that why Biden is flashing his lasered-daily teeth every 20 seconds?
That's so unnerving and disturbing.
Gua fell asleep during the debate, soalnya they offer nothing new, cuma lies, statistics and advertisements.

btw, the bailout plan is passed. Thanks Plainbread. Your (soon-to-be increased by Obama) tax money is saving my portfolio.
Would it help? I don't think so. As long as Deflation is all over the place,ie. hard assets keep deflating, oil and commodities falling, employment falling and consumer spending is falling, American is going into deep recession
Bedanya bailout plan ini cuma whether kita kapan kesananya.

[PlainBread]

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

btw, the bailout plan is passed. Thanks Plainbread. Your (soon-to-be increased by Obama) tax money is saving my portfolio.
Would it help? I don't think so. As long as Deflation is all over the place,ie. hard assets keep deflating, oil and commodities falling, employment falling and consumer spending is falling, American is going into deep recession
Bedanya bailout plan ini cuma whether kita kapan kesananya.

Your welcome Kepik. Siapa pun yang jadi presidennya, the worst thing yah tax bakal naik. Dengan plan ideal 2 kandidat sekarang, gue bukan CEO Exxon jadi gak bakal dapet apa2 dari McCain, income gue dibawah $250 ribu so gue lebih prefer Obama.

It already happened thanks to Bush and their friends, satu2nya presiden di sejarah amrik yang terus kasih tax break buat big companies di saat negara lagi perang. Giliran negara butuh duit, mana tuh big companies, boro2 kasih duit balik (mungkin ke ruling party tapi gak ke gue), kasih more jobs juga kagak.

Glass half full aja kalo sikon udah kaya gini. Mau ngeliat half empty terus yang ada blood pressure naik n sakit penyakit malah dateng ke kita. Lagian I've been getting good stuff in this land, masa in the same land gue gak mau dapet yang jelek. Kalo pun harus terjadi another great depression, gue bakal bisa cerita ke anak cucu gue "I was there, and I survived"

[kepikbiru]

Do you really need bailout ?
Citibank beli Wachovia cuma $2 billion + asking the government to bailout losses over $35B (gua ngga inget exact numbers).
In effect, they probably gonna buy Wachovia for about $25-30B and asking the government to pay $23-28B
Wells Fargo (a Warren Buffet backed bank) wants to pay $16B, without government bailout.
Now, apa kita beneran butuh bailout kalo misalnya assets can be priced accordingly without bailout?
Everything has a value, but the price doesn't always reflect the value.
Now people like Buffett, Wells Fargo, they buy at value. People like Citibank, they want to buy at price and wants the government to pay for the rest via the bailout plan.
It's a big slap and a vote of no confidence dari Wells Fargo buat the current and next president, senate and house, and treasury.

btw Warren Buffet keliatannya somewhat pendukung bailout (kalo government beli asset at market price instead of overpaying).

[vion]

and wallstreet set another record. a bad one unfortunately. bisa2nya turun 800 poin dalam waktu sehari sebelum akhirnya ditutup dengan kondisi turun 370 para investor tampak tak percaya rencana bailout itu bakal berhasil. so, what's next?

[- DanDeLioN -]

bahh.. parah nih bapak2 serius banged diskusi sampe citygroup & wachovia aja tau lo pik, lo pan tetangga lol.. ebad2 .. gw ga ngerti T_T maklum orang ndeso washington lol..

[kepikbiru]

Originally Posted by kepikbiru

Wapres tercinta bilang "relax the fundamental of our economy is strong!"
kompas.com/read/xml/2008/10/01/13581136/wapres.minta.gubernur.bi.tenang.hadapi.krisis.
Ini dead ringer sama omongan John McCain

Permintaan itu disampaikan Wapres Kalla saat menjawab pers usai open house di Jakarta. "Saya meminta tenang-tenang sajalah. Fundamental domestik ekonomi kita cukup baik. Terkecuali pergerakan pasar saham yang turun naik," tandas Wapres.

Menurut Wapres, dampak yang bisa terjadi akibat krisis global adalah turunnya ekspor. Namun bagi Indonesia, dampak itu tidak terlalu besar, sebab ekspor Indonesia ke AS merupakan komoditas utama, seperti energi.

"Akibat krisis global, memang turun daya beli masyarakat di Amerika dan Eropa terhadap komoditi. Itu yang menyebabkan ekspor bisa menurun. Tapi karena ekspor kita adalah komoditi utama, itu tidak terlalu berpengaruh. Hari ini ekspor komoditas kita mulai naik lagi," ujar Kalla.

Well let's recap what we know. Dalam keadaan recession -> deep recession -> depression yang terjadi adalah price deflation, artinya harga turun. We saw harga asset (rumah, tanah, saham) deflate like crazy, oil udah turun, commodity, down.

Pertanyaan yg simple Bpk Wakil Presiden, apa yang terjadi kalau Indonesia mengekspor barang yang harganya turun dan demandnya turun?

Krisis ekonomi yang terjadi di Amerika Serikat diperkirakan berpengaruh pada turunnya ekspor kebutuhan primer ke negara tersebut. Beberapa jenis produk ekspor kebutuhan primer, antara lain makanan,minuman, kertas, dan pakaian. Demikian di ungkapkan Ke